IMF Updates 2026-2027 Global Growth and Trade Forecasts Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth and trade forecasts for 2026-2027, citing geopolitical risks and slowed trade. The organization lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 3% and projected a rebound to 3.4% in 2027. Trade growth was forecast at 3.5% for 2026 and 4.3% for 2027, though the IMF noted a sharp slowdown compared to 2025.
Where Sources Diverge
IMF forecasts global trade growth of 3.5% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027
IMF forecasts global trade growth of 3.5% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027
IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3% but projects rebound in 2027
IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3% but projects rebound in 2027
IMF expects global GDP to gain 3% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027
IMF expects global GDP to gain 3% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027
IMF downgrades global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point compared to April report
IMF downgrades global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point compared to April report
Timelines
Sources
The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for the second time this year, flagging "uncertainty and risks" brought on by the war in Iran. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez responds to threats from Donald Trump that the US will cut off all trade with his country. And, the heatwave is putting France's power system is under pressure.
Despite the upward revision of the trade growth forecast, the report’s authors noted that global trade has slowed sharply compared to 2025
According to the report, the global economic growth forecast has been downgraded by 0.1 percentage point compared to the optimistic growth scenario presented in the IMF’s April report
"In emerging and developing Europe, growth is expected to remain restrained at about 2 percent," the IMF said