US and Iran Edge Toward Peace Deal Amid Oil Price Volatility and Nuclear Disputes
On May 25, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though no details were provided. Oil prices fell as much as 5% to below $100 a barrel on hopes of a deal, but both sides downplayed the likelihood of an imminent agreement. Key sticking points include Iran’s nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Where Sources Diverge
Some sources report that oil prices fell over 5% on hopes for an Iran deal, while others note a 4.2% drop in Brent crude.
Brent fell as much as 4.2 per cent to US$99.16 a barrel
Brent crude futures down 5.5% to lowest level in two weeks
There are conflicting reports on whether the US and Iran are close to a deal or if major issues remain unresolved.
Trump said on Saturday that an agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Key sticking points remain over Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and a possible ceasefire in Lebanon
Timelines
Sources
Stocks Drop, Oil Spikes on Renewed Attacks in Middle East Bloomberg
Stocks Drop, Oil Spikes on Renewed Attacks in Middle East Bloomberg.com
Asian shares decline and oil prices up more than $1 after US strikes on Iran AP News
Shares falter, oil gains as Gulf hostilities heat up Reuters
China’s Declining Appetite for Oil Laid Bare by Iran War Bloomberg.com
Stocks in Asia to Slip on Mixed US-Iran Signals: Markets Wrap Bloomberg.com
Oil Steadies After Slump as Deal to End Iran War Remains Elusive Bloomberg.com
Oil falls, stocks waver as investors eye US-Iran talks The Jakarta Post
Treasuries Rise as Oil Prices Drop on Signs of US-Iran Accord Bloomberg.com
US Stocks Drift as Traders Weigh Latest Iran Peace Deal Reports Bloomberg.com
Shares advance, oil prices ease as investors weigh shaky US-Iran truce Reuters
Americans remain wary of Iran conflict as US talks drag on Anadolu Ajansı
Americans remain wary of Iran conflict as US pursues possible peace deal Anadolu Ajansı
Oil pulls back as traders look for progress on US-Iran talks Reuters
Base Metals Advance as US Touts Progress Toward Iran Peace Deal Bloomberg.com
Watch Mideast Conflict: US Sees Progress in Iran Deal Despite Fresh Hostilities, Hormuz Worries Bloomberg.com
Oil Steadies as US Sees Progress in Iran Deal Despite Tensions Bloomberg.com
Mideast War: US Touts Iran Deal Prospects Even as Tensions Fester Bloomberg.com
US Touts Iran Deal Prospects Amid Fresh Tensions in Hormuz Bloomberg.com
US and Iranian Forces Clash as Sticking Points Remain in Reaching Deal Bloomberg.com
US and Iran Clash Near Hormuz Despite Reports of Progress Bloomberg.com
US and Iran clash near Hormuz even as both tout talks progress The Straits Times
US and Iran Clash Near Hormuz Even as Both Tout Talks Progress Bloomberg.com
US-Iran Deal Remains Uncertain Amid Fresh Strikes Bloomberg.com
Wheat Extends Decline as Traders Digest Iran Ceasefire Talks Bloomberg.com
Oil advances as strikes near Hormuz Strait cloud outlook for Iran deal The Straits Times
Watch Oil Rebounds After US and Iran Clash Near Hormuz | Bloomberg Brief 5/26/2026 Bloomberg.com
Watch Oil Climbs as US Strikes Iran Targets | The Asia Trade 5/26/2026 Bloomberg.com
Watch Strikes Near Strait Muddy Outlook for Iran Deal Bloomberg.com
Oil Holds Decline as Traders See Progress Toward Iranian Deal Bloomberg.com
Oil Prices Drop on Prospect of Iran Deal, but Investors Aren’t Celebrating Yet WSJ
What an America-Iran deal might look like The Economist
Iran Talks Bog Down Over Nuclear Program and Sanctions Relief WSJ
According to the newspaper, the US side is seeking clear nuclear guarantees from Tehran in advance, while Iran insists that Washingon be more precise regarding the sanctions relief process
Simon Mabon, Professor of International Politics and Middle East Studies at Lancaster University, joins FRANCE 24 to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East. While Iran and the United States are still exploring a possible deal to end the conflict, both sides are now downplaying hopes of an imminent breakthrough after appearing close to an agreement just days ago. Mabon explains that Iran may currently hold leverage through its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, increasing pressure on both President Donald Trump and the global economy, while Tehran also seeks economic guarantees after years of sanctions. The Iranian nuclear programme remains a major obstacle, with Israel likely pushing behind the scenes against any agreement that fails to address it directly.
Tehran says ‘contradictory statements’ from US and Israeli interference hindering negotiations Iran has poured cold water on suggestions that a deal with the US is imminent, pointing to the confusion in US positions and Israeli interference as key factors in why a complete agreement is proving difficult to secure. Speaking at the weekly foreign ministry press briefing, Esmail Baghaei, the spokesperson for Iran’s negotiating team, also said future management of the strait of Hormuz was a matter for Oman and Iran to reach agreement on, and that it was not tolls that were being proposed but “fees for navigational services”. Continue reading...
The United States and Iran have downplayed prospects for a rapid deal to end the Middle East war, despite signs of progress in talks. Key sticking points remain over Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, with both sides signalling that major issues are still unresolved.
Washington and Iran have presented conflicting assessments on the prospects for a peace deal. Oil prices have fallen despite the uncertainty. DW has the latest.
Diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States appear to be advancing, but disputes over sanctions, maritime control and Iran’s nuclear programme continue to complicate negotiations
Brent crude futures down 5.5% to lowest level in two weeks and stock markets rise Oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel and stock markets have risen on hopes that the US and Iran are inching closer to a peace deal. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were down 5.5% to just below $98 a barrel, the lowest levels in two weeks, with hopes that an agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran can be struck. Continue reading...
US, Iran Edge Closer to Deal But Still Need to Negotiate Points Bloomberg.com
Iran says ‘many issues’ resolved but warns peace deal with US not imminent Financial Times
Iran said on Monday that Tehran and Washington had reached understandings on many issues in exchanges over a deal for ending the war, but warned an agreement was not imminent. “It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said, during a weekly news briefing. “But to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent — no one can make such a claim,” he said, accusing Washington of “contradictions” and shifting its positions. The remarks come after Iran said it was finalising a 14-point framework for a deal on ending the war. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal to end the war with Iran could materialise on Monday as US President Donald Trump told his negotiators not to “rush”. During the press conference, Baqaei insisted that the framework being drafted “is focused on ending the war” across the region, including in Lebanon. He reiterated that details on Iran’s nuclear programme — a key sticking point for Washington — were not included and that the issue would only be discussed after the two sides agree on the framework. Clauses on ending the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, in place since April 13, and arrangements on the strategic Strait of Hormuz were included, he said. “US actions under the title of a naval blockade must be stopped, and at the same time, the Islamic Republic of Iran will take the necessary measures for safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. Traffic through Hormuz, a vital global shipping route, has come under Iranian control since the outbreak of the war. Iran, which has only allowed a trickle of ships to pass through the strait, has insisted that vessels obtain permission from its armed forces before transiting the waterway. Baqaei said Iran was not imposing tolls on ships transiting the strait but rather collecting fees for “navigational services”. “The services that are provided — navigational services in addition to the measures necessary to protect the environment of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman — require the collection of certain fees,” he said, adding that Iran was “not seeking to collect tolls”.
US, Iran Inch Toward a Deal as Some Gaps Remain Bloomberg.com
Oil futures slid on Monday as traders assessed US President Donald Trump's announcement over the weekend that a deal with Iran had been "largely negotiated". The benchmark Brent crude still remains much higher than when the war started on February 28. Also in this edition: some commercial vessels are managing to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, Ferrari is set to launch its first fully electric supercar model.
Global Markets Gain and Oil Prices Retreat as U.S-Iran Peace Talks Continue WSJ
According to Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, frequent changes in the US position are complicating the negotiation process
Iran says ‘large part’ of talks with US concluded but cautions deal not imminent Anadolu Ajansı
Iran says conclusions reached on many topics in potential U.S. memorandum but no deal imminent Reuters
US-Iran deal hopes push oil prices below $100 a barrel The National
Oil prices fell 6% to two-week lows today, as optimism grew that the US and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal, even though they remain at odds over key issues, such as blockades on the Strait of Hormuz.
Emerging-Market Assets Rise as Oil Drops on US-Iran Deal Hopes Bloomberg.com
Asian shares mostly gain and oil prices fall after Trump says peace talks on Iran war are proceeding The Washington Post
Trump said on Saturday that an agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without giving further details.
Oil prices fall over 5% amid Iran-US peace hopes: Will petrol and diesel prices in India come down now? WION
Asian shares mostly gain and oil prices fall after Trump says peace talks on Iran war are proceeding AP News
Japan's stock market surges to record high on hopes of an end to US-Israel war on Iran.
Oil prices fall over 5% on hopes for Iran deal The Straits Times
Watch Iran Says US Deal Not Imminent | The Opening Trade 5/25/2026 Bloomberg.com
Watch Iran Says US Deal Not Imminent | The Pulse 5/25/2026 Bloomberg.com
Watch Oil Falls, Stocks Rise as US, Iran Inch Toward Deal | The Asia Trade 5/25/2026 Bloomberg.com
Crude Oil Drops as US Inches Toward Iran Deal to Reopen Strait Bloomberg.com
Oil dropped at the week’s open as the US and Iran edged towards a deal, although US President Donald Trump said Washington’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would remain until an agreement was completed. Global crude benchmark Brent fell as much as 4.2 per cent to US$99.16 a barrel, after declining more than 5 per cent last week, while West Texas Intermediate was near US$92. Trump said in social-media posts he would not “rush” into a deal, which “isn’t even fully negotiated yet”. Any final...
Oil prices hit two-week lows on optimism that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a peace deal even though they remained at odds over key issues.
Oil slips to 2-week low as US-Iran seen moving closer to peace deal Reuters