US-Iran Confrontation and Geopolitical Tensions: Military Operations

Tensions began in July 2019 when the US called for coalition patrols in the Gulf to counter Iranian influence, escalating in January 2020 after a US air strike in Baghdad killed General Qassem Soleimani. Conflict intensified in June 2025 when Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military sites, leading to US strikes on Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. On March 1, 2026, US-Israeli forces killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering Iranian drone attacks on US interests in Riyadh, Oman, and Bahrain. A February 28, 2026, US-attributed bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh school in Minab killed 123 children, an event later investigated following September reports of AI and intelligence failures. A ceasefire was proposed in April 2026, but failed after Israel struck Lebanon. In May, a US strike pause occurred on May 18-19 at the request of Gulf allies, though Iran confirmed a drone strike on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant on May 18. Ceasefire breaches were reported by Iran on May 26 following US strikes in southern Iran, and by the US on May 28 after IRGC retaliation in Kuwait. On May 4, Iran launched attacks on the UAE, which it claimed were unplanned. In June, a framework agreement was announced stating Iran would not develop nuclear weapons and included a leaked $300 billion US commitment for sanctions relief; however, Israeli strikes in Lebanon led Iran to declare talks futile. Hostilities resumed in late June 2026 with mutual strikes on missile depots and US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. In July, the US declared the ceasefire over and launched 90 airstrikes on Iran following Iranian tanker attacks. Iran retaliated by killing two US troops in Jordan and attacking bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. By August, the US implemented a naval blockade on Iranian ports. On August 26, Iran launched attacks on US intelligence sites in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, causing billions in damage. On August 30, the US struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, and on August 31, Iran shot down a US MQ-9 drone. On September 1, 2026, the US launched strikes on Larak Island and IRGC targets, attributing the escalation to Iranian minelaying and attacks on commercial shipping. The US implemented a 'Tanker for Tanker' policy, destroying Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on US warships. Iran retaliated with coordinated attacks on US installations in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and the UAE. By late September, the US considered the 'Greenland option' to withdraw from the conflict. As of late October 2026, the US has evacuated non-essential diplomatic staff from Saudi Arabia and reduced personnel in several Middle Eastern nations. The UK government accused the IRGC of orchestrating a bomb plot at RAF Fairford. The US and Israel are preparing for new strikes, which Iran warns could target Gulf undersea cables. The Pentagon has removed its chief planner as President Trump weighs further military action following the November midterm elections.